So Where to 2012? C's Econ View

Personally I find the credit crunch the major risk in 2012… the Euro bank deleveraging means tighter credit conditions as banks try to clean up their balance sheets, Europe as an economy depends more on debt than the US does (17%-30% in the Euro VS 13-15% in the US). If the world found itself in a recessionary phase post Lehman, we are sure to be tipping towards one now. And as for policy, well no policy has historically been able to successfully be implemented with real teeth in a short period. Divorce is never pretty, so a jettison of a country from the EU, such as Greece is well not really going to help solve the problem, but create a series of other. On the flip side I don’t see the Euro falling apart and a return to national currencies (yes a little premature for me to make bold claims, but this is safe territory to speak freely). As for consolidating fiscal policy and a more disciplined budget policy in the EU that is no walk in the park either, and given that both Monti and the Greek PM were not voted in but were sort of forced into their positions they don’t have popular support- talk about probably a “Euro Spring” that could come. As for the ECB, I think it’s on a covert mission to buy up peripheral Euro zone bonds to try to stabilize the markets by bringing down yields- but stabilize and not cure. I think since the issue is Sovereign in nature and not private, confidence and the markets will remain mercurial, time is def the healer of all wounds here, time and change. But the markets are just not as forgiving.

I heard a guy say on CNBC that economies are either accelerating or decelerating, they don’t “muddle through”… that’s just euphemism for it’s going to get worse before it gets better. I completely agree.

Interesting time for all of us to be a part, this era, a history in the making.

I have been asked recently why I stopped writing. May be because there’s nothing that inspires me to write, or may be if I dig deeper, it’s because I am sick of repeating myself like a broken record… but more realistically it is because I simply don’t have time. Between my “in between” or transitioning position at the bank, my tutoring and work out I am physically and mentally drained by the end of the night… I barely make it to my bed and crash before the alarm rings and then repeat. Even the weekends fly by so quickly, the next thing I know is that it’s the alarm ringing again at 8am on Saturday.


At the risk of mimicking my economic reporting style, of wrapping up 2011 and forecasting 2012, I have come to a decision to share my do’s and do not’s of 2012:

1) Do travel a lot… especially to new places. Barcelona, Florence and Paris were my destinations this year and all I can say is Europe is charming, breathtaking and sexy.

2) Do work out… I’m loving my new fit self, I have far more energy and feel incredibly good about it.

3) Do be patient… patience got me my new position or as I would like to think about it set me on the right career track and so far I am really loving it.

4) Do speak the truth when warranted… and especially when it’s a wakeup call sort of a truth.

5) Do buy an I-phone: it’s an awesome device.

6) Don’t settle for less than you deserve, be it a job, location, lover, friend… which probably leads me to the next point DO KNOW YOUR SELF WORTH, it will make figuring out what you deserve much easier.

7) Do not give a damn about how people make you feel, if you know and think you have done good, then you probably have. It’s hard to please everyone.

8) Do not wallow in self misery, it’s a slippery slope and once you slide it’s a fucking long way down.

9) Do not buy an expensive purse. Save it for something better (okay so this is more a reminder that I should hold myself back from spending).

10) Do not over think but don’t be impulsive either- try to find the right balance.

11) Do not waste time with people who don’t treat you with same amount of respect or appreciation.

12) Do not make a huge decision and go back on it… see #9 that might help.



They may all sound a little too much like a self help book, or 7 Habits of Living a Young Adult Life in 21st century, but that’s the best I can do for now. If you wish for me to expand on one of those points, I would be more than happy to.



Till then, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.